{ "schemaVersion": "1.0", "release": "BVL-1.0-EDU", "modelVersion": "credit-corrected-v1", "buildDate": "2026-09-29", "modelCutoff": "2026-09-27", "title": "Bitcoin Valuation Lab", "author": "Mark Moss", "units": "nominal USD trillions unless stated", "frozenSource": { "file": "ba99554d3d3120e142b8f4c636f4dd4249060ee4.zip", "sha256": "ae488eae8d26c50ecd0f95ae4136f0279e5373c1883deb95bcec8b02cf9545db" }, "years": [ 2030, 2040, 2050 ], "categories": [ { "id": "gold", "label": "Gold", "sourceIds": [ "GOLD", "GOLDPRICE" ], "evidenceStatus": "Derived stock valuation", "note": "All above-ground gold marked at the retained end-2025 price; not investment bullion only." }, { "id": "property", "label": "Real estate", "sourceIds": [ "PROPERTY" ], "evidenceStatus": "Source estimate + 2025 bridge", "note": "End-2024 source estimate rolled to 2025 using the retained observed-period growth rate." }, { "id": "fixed_income", "label": "Debt securities", "sourceIds": [ "SECURITIES" ], "evidenceStatus": "Published securities stock", "note": "Outstanding negotiable debt, not all global credit and not a uniform market-price valuation." }, { "id": "other_credit", "label": "Other credit / loans", "sourceIds": [ "C01", "C03", "C04", "C05", "C06" ], "evidenceStatus": "Covered loan-form claims; partial coverage", "note": "China, US and euro-area selected loan stocks. Not a complete global or fully de-securitized loan census." }, { "id": "equities", "label": "Listed equities", "sourceIds": [ "SECURITIES", "INDIA" ], "evidenceStatus": "Adjusted working estimate", "note": "Retains the disclosed India adjustment. Not an official publisher correction." }, { "id": "money", "label": "Broad money", "sourceIds": [ "MONEY", "M2US", "M2CN", "M3EA" ], "evidenceStatus": "Attributed global estimate + proxy history", "note": "The $144T level is an attributed compilation. Growth follows a scaled US-China-euro-area proxy." }, { "id": "art_collectibles", "label": "Art & collectibles", "sourceIds": [ "ART", "MODEL" ], "evidenceStatus": "User assumption; unverified all-holder estimate", "note": "$18T art plus $6T other collectibles, assumed disjoint in 2023 and bridged to 2025. Not a verified world census." } ], "paths": { "reference": { "2025": { "pieT": 995.8726642534687, "incumbentT": 994.1251292057628, "supply": 19969815.0, "moneyT": 144.0, "categoriesT": { "money": 144.25313216563663, "gold": 31.04836852703014, "property": 409.5046769945064, "fixed_income": 160.9865956726367, "other_credit": 70.34757391249146, "equities": 152.7518705892937, "art_collectibles": 26.980446391873674 }, "incumbentCategoriesT": { "money": 144.0, "gold": 30.993885545296983, "property": 408.7860873585675, "fixed_income": 160.7041, "other_credit": 70.22412956529139, "equities": 152.48382502780868, "art_collectibles": 26.93310170879826 } }, "2030": { "pieT": 1454.2320233507726, "incumbentT": 1451.6801695651216, "supply": 20567857.5, "moneyT": 205.13009681885455, "categoriesT": { "money": 205.49068727472266, "gold": 45.727174858738046, "property": 585.3902874146514, "fixed_income": 237.09658701798992, "other_credit": 103.60595309167412, "equities": 237.18528157631454, "art_collectibles": 39.73605211668189 }, "incumbentCategoriesT": { "money": 205.13009681885455, "gold": 45.646933836399995, "property": 584.3630576486747, "fixed_income": 236.68053523709685, "other_credit": 103.42414768554382, "equities": 236.76907415619692, "art_collectibles": 39.66632418235464 } }, "2040": { "pieT": 2990.6882033573615, "incumbentT": 2985.4402106774487, "supply": 20925675.9375, "moneyT": 401.3372791946964, "categoriesT": { "money": 402.04277485187185, "gold": 95.35985869610477, "property": 1150.108629049784, "fixed_income": 494.44333933181423, "other_credit": 216.0607795565431, "equities": 549.8069040293117, "art_collectibles": 82.86591784193186 }, "incumbentCategoriesT": { "money": 401.3372791946964, "gold": 95.19252335174059, "property": 1148.0904441853163, "fixed_income": 493.5757012334889, "other_credit": 215.68164093946626, "equities": 548.8421151875755, "art_collectibles": 82.72050658516477 } }, "2050": { "pieT": 6152.868758312215, "incumbentT": 6142.071842014542, "supply": 20986589.296148255, "moneyT": 785.216865634496, "categoriesT": { "money": 786.5971687295826, "gold": 198.0826445365273, "property": 2250.721758628499, "fixed_income": 1027.063646774447, "other_credit": 448.8040479545291, "equities": 1269.4694112489553, "art_collectibles": 172.1300804396741 }, "incumbentCategoriesT": { "money": 785.216865634496, "gold": 197.73505354814594, "property": 2246.7722424935364, "fixed_income": 1025.2613784891655, "other_credit": 448.0164966625768, "equities": 1267.2417747570842, "art_collectibles": 171.82803042953725 } } }, "noDeepening": { "2025": { "pieT": 995.8726642534687, "incumbentT": 994.1251292057628, "supply": 19969815.0, "moneyT": 144.0, "categoriesT": { "money": 144.25313216563663, "gold": 31.04836852703014, "property": 409.5046769945064, "fixed_income": 160.9865956726367, "other_credit": 70.34757391249146, "equities": 152.7518705892937, "art_collectibles": 26.980446391873674 }, "incumbentCategoriesT": { "money": 144.0, "gold": 30.993885545296983, "property": 408.7860873585675, "fixed_income": 160.7041, "other_credit": 70.22412956529139, "equities": 152.48382502780868, "art_collectibles": 26.93310170879826 } }, "2030": { "pieT": 1307.0471284193136, "incumbentT": 1304.7535513909409, "supply": 20567857.5, "moneyT": 184.36858747043843, "categoriesT": { "money": 184.69268205253397, "gold": 41.099062343660805, "property": 526.142102418357, "fixed_income": 213.099703653778, "other_credit": 93.11984697159627, "equities": 213.17942130949123, "art_collectibles": 35.71430966989623 }, "incumbentCategoriesT": { "money": 184.36858747043843, "gold": 41.02694262951318, "property": 525.2188400404917, "fixed_income": 212.72576106637916, "other_credit": 92.95644234963905, "equities": 212.8053388353355, "art_collectibles": 35.65163899914381 } }, "2040": { "pieT": 2171.41967081863, "incumbentT": 2167.6093122113093, "supply": 20925675.9375, "moneyT": 291.39502462940595, "categoriesT": { "money": 291.90725694635165, "gold": 69.23699794139463, "property": 835.048099595735, "fixed_income": 358.99562914150465, "other_credit": 156.8731325100375, "equities": 399.1929099198315, "art_collectibles": 60.16564476377495 }, "incumbentCategoriesT": { "money": 291.39502462940595, "gold": 69.11550240803624, "property": 833.5827758922698, "fixed_income": 358.3656716515395, "other_credit": 156.59785505043357, "equities": 398.49241514181335, "art_collectibles": 60.06006743781096 } }, "2050": { "pieT": 3608.8212257343375, "incumbentT": 3602.488547070441, "supply": 20986589.296148255, "moneyT": 460.5505826332085, "categoriesT": { "money": 461.36016712186927, "gold": 116.18074107095006, "property": 1320.1081925870144, "fixed_income": 602.4001541805128, "other_credit": 263.2355146964131, "equities": 744.5775843254604, "art_collectibles": 100.95887175211774 }, "incumbentCategoriesT": { "money": 460.5505826332085, "gold": 115.9768697084982, "property": 1317.7916962957554, "fixed_income": 601.3430758812876, "other_credit": 262.77359491063635, "equities": 743.2710162560172, "art_collectibles": 100.78171138503816 } } }, "recent": { "2025": { "pieT": 995.8726642534687, "incumbentT": 994.1251292057628, "supply": 19969815.0, "moneyT": 144.0, "categoriesT": { "money": 144.25313216563663, "gold": 31.04836852703014, "property": 409.5046769945064, "fixed_income": 160.9865956726367, "other_credit": 70.34757391249146, "equities": 152.7518705892937, "art_collectibles": 26.980446391873674 }, "incumbentCategoriesT": { "money": 144.0, "gold": 30.993885545296983, "property": 408.7860873585675, "fixed_income": 160.7041, "other_credit": 70.22412956529139, "equities": 152.48382502780868, "art_collectibles": 26.93310170879826 } }, "2030": { "pieT": 1262.427980227339, "incumbentT": 1260.212699880925, "supply": 20567857.5, "moneyT": 178.07472924037054, "categoriesT": { "money": 178.38776008660506, "gold": 39.69604854760838, "property": 508.18099609908256, "fixed_income": 205.82504075123003, "other_credit": 89.9409805318953, "equities": 205.90203705603219, "art_collectibles": 34.49511715488544 }, "incumbentCategoriesT": { "money": 178.07472924037054, "gold": 39.626390810648225, "property": 507.28925146833006, "fixed_income": 205.46386357936953, "other_credit": 89.7831541135727, "equities": 205.5407247727804, "art_collectibles": 34.434585895853374 } }, "2040": { "pieT": 1956.5450886462036, "incumbentT": 1953.1117871433562, "supply": 20925675.9375, "moneyT": 262.55979530648005, "categoriesT": { "money": 263.02133926200116, "gold": 62.38559505347589, "property": 752.4152424351169, "fixed_income": 323.47092756024534, "other_credit": 141.3496253524064, "equities": 359.69045404823987, "art_collectibles": 54.21190493471792 }, "incumbentCategoriesT": { "money": 262.55979530648005, "gold": 62.27612220846145, "property": 751.0949210187547, "fixed_income": 322.90330802100516, "other_credit": 141.1015881954988, "equities": 359.0592772950897, "art_collectibles": 54.11677509806623 } }, "2050": { "pieT": 3033.4873622437362, "incumbentT": 3028.164266558338, "supply": 20986589.296148255, "moneyT": 387.12761999108034, "categoriesT": { "money": 387.8081370245949, "gold": 97.65870563541823, "property": 1109.6508440071784, "fixed_income": 506.362920304655, "other_credit": 221.26937223464373, "equities": 625.8738105824709, "art_collectibles": 84.86357245477484 }, "incumbentCategoriesT": { "money": 387.12761999108034, "gold": 97.48733632592983, "property": 1107.7036535578125, "fixed_income": 505.474365992589, "other_credit": 220.88109369578677, "equities": 624.7755412367068, "art_collectibles": 84.71465575843253 } } } }, "pathLabels": { "reference": "Reference monetary path", "noDeepening": "No continued monetary deepening", "recent": "Recent monetary-growth trend" }, "pathDescriptions": { "reference": "Frozen IMF-linked GDP path plus the retained historical monetary-deepening assumption.", "noDeepening": "Remove the assumed continuing rise in money relative to GDP. Keep the other model relationships and captures unchanged.", "recent": "Use the retained 2020–2025 money-to-GDP trend instead of the reference history. Not a probability bound." }, "presets": { "earlier": { "label": "Conservative thesis", "subLabel": "Earlier thesis; lower capture, not a probability or risk rating", "shares": { "2030": 1.25, "2040": 5, "2050": 10 } }, "mark": { "label": "Mark’s thesis", "subLabel": "Default conviction scenario", "shares": { "2030": 1.5, "2040": 8, "2050": 15 } }, "higher": { "label": "High adoption", "subLabel": "Stronger penetration assumption", "shares": { "2030": 2, "2040": 10, "2050": 20 } } }, "defaultPreset": "mark", "advancedDefaults": { "2030": { "gold": 10, "property": 0.25, "fixed_income": 0.5, "other_credit": 0.5, "equities": 0.25, "money": 0.25, "art_collectibles": 0.2 }, "2040": { "gold": 20, "property": 1, "fixed_income": 1, "other_credit": 1, "equities": 0.75, "money": 1, "art_collectibles": 0.75 }, "2050": { "gold": 30, "property": 2, "fixed_income": 2, "other_credit": 2, "equities": 1.5, "money": 2, "art_collectibles": 1.5 } }, "advancedDefaultStatus": "Legacy illustrative category settings; other credit mechanically matches bonds. Not calibrated to Mark’s whole-pie preset.", "starting": { "incumbentT": 994.1251292057628, "btcCapT": 1.747535047705889, "combinedT": 995.8726642534688, "btcSharePct": 0.17547776040382485, "btcPrice": 87508.82507955, "btcSupply": 19969815.0, "btcTimestamp": "2025-12-31T00:00:00.000Z", "bridge": 1.0017578622613654, "categoriesT": { "money": 144.0, "gold": 30.993885545296983, "property": 408.7860873585675, "fixed_income": 160.7041, "other_credit": 70.22412956529139, "equities": 152.48382502780868, "art_collectibles": 26.93310170879826 } }, "history": { "2015": { "valuesT": { "money": 75.21029987105388, "gold": 6.345657151743242, "property": 217.0, "fixed_income": 84.6159, "equities": 68.60539999999999 }, "coreTotalT": 451.77725702279713, "scope": "Five-category historical core; art and added loan category excluded; mixed-vintage estimates" }, "2020": { "valuesT": { "money": 108.7388661099659, "gold": 12.239341406360076, "property": 326.5, "fixed_income": 127.9737, "equities": 109.1773 }, "coreTotalT": 684.629207516326, "scope": "Five-category historical core; art and added loan category excluded; mixed-vintage estimates" }, "2025": { "valuesT": { "money": 144.0, "gold": 30.99388554529698, "property": 408.7860873585675, "fixed_income": 160.7041, "equities": 152.48382502780868 }, "coreTotalT": 896.9678979316732, "scope": "Five-category historical core; art and added loan category excluded; mixed-vintage estimates" } }, "parameters": { "ratioLogDrift": 0.00578408528915122, "shareLogDrifts": { "gold": 0.0, "property": -0.005963207030398175, "fixed_income": 0.0, "equities": 0.010576055400207833, "art_collectibles": 0.0, "other_credit": 0.0 }, "moneyDeepeningLogReference": 0.021341, "moneyDeepeningLogRecent": -0.006947, "deepeningWindow": "2018–2025", "ratioWindow": "2015–2025", "goldQuantityOnlyOnce": true, "futureSupplyNoLostCoinDiscount": true, "gdpForecastHorizon": 2031, "gdpTerminalCagr": 0.046838099626761 }, "limits": [ "Gross assets and financial claims; not consolidated global wealth or cash waiting to enter Bitcoin.", "Finite-pie reallocation is a scenario convention, not a causal one-for-one flow law.", "Money is partly estimated and proxy-scaled. Loan coverage is partial. Art uses a user assumption.", "Historical core excludes art and the subsequently added loan category. It is not the current full basket.", "All future SOV values are conditional model outputs; capture fractions are editable assumptions.", "No intra-period Bitcoin forecast is implied by three milestone values.", "No 100x advantage coefficient or Uber/Airbnb adoption multiple is included." ], "inflationIllustration": { "annualRate": 0.023, "baseYear": 2025, "status": "Retained illustrative assumption; not implied by SOV growth." } }