Is this a forecast or a thought experiment?
It is a conditional projection model. Historical evidence and selected relationships inform the future market path, while Bitcoin’s market share is explicitly assumed. A reader can use it to examine a thesis without treating the displayed price as the most likely outcome.
Calling it a scenario does not excuse incorrect numbers. It makes the assumptions that produce the numbers visible.
[MODEL]Why not multiply Bitcoin by AI payment volume?
A payment is an activity over time. A savings balance is a stock at a time. The same balance can finance many transactions. Multiplying an activity forecast by an arbitrary factor would add a new model, not simply improve this one.
AI may matter if it changes sustained balances or allocations. V1 explains that possible channel but assigns no numerical AI premium.
[AI-BTC][AI-USDC][MODEL]Is the basket bigger than net wealth?
It can be, because it counts real assets and several layers of financial claims. A bond, a loan and an equity claim can be different instruments without being independent underlying wealth. The $995.87T combined starting number is a modeled gross comparison, not a consolidated net-wealth census.
Broad credit is not added again on top of money, securities and the selected loan-form bucket. Remaining look-through overlap is disclosed rather than declared solved.
[MODEL][C06][C07]Why is the baseline 2025 rather than today?
This is a frozen research release assembled from dated observations and estimates. A current Bitcoin quote would not make the rest of the global basket current. Mixing a live quote with stale market stocks would introduce a new date mismatch.
Future revisions can update the model as a dated version. The current app deliberately has no live API dependency.
[MODEL][BTC-REF]A short glossary
| Term | Meaning in this lab |
|---|---|
| Store of value | An asset or claim held partly to carry purchasing power into the future. A role, not a guarantee. |
| Gross inventory | Sum of the selected real assets and financial claims before comprehensive consolidation. |
| Broad money | Currency, deposits and other liquid components under the relevant statistical definitions. |
| Monetary deepening | Change in money relative to the economic-output measure used in the model. |
| Market share | A fraction of the specified modeled stock-value pie, not a fraction of users or transactions. |
| Capture | A chosen fraction attributed to Bitcoin within the finite-pie convention. |
| Nominal price | Dollar value at the future date, not adjusted for consumer purchasing power. |
| CAGR | Constant annual rate that connects two endpoints; it does not describe every intervening year. |
| Relative-share drift | A modeled change in raw relative category weight before normalization. |
| Sensitivity | A controlled change to an input, not a measured probability interval. |
| T / Q | T = trillion dollars; Q = quadrillion dollars = 1,000T. |
What belongs in version 2.0?
The deferred work is a behavioral adoption model: reachable capital, new adopters, retention, and allocation expansion. It could compare those mechanisms with Mark’s explicit whole-pie milestones, rather than replace them silently.
Version 1 is intentionally finished without that upgrade. No later model, source update or category migration is implied to be running in the background.
[MODEL][VC-AI]