Stop guessing a price.
Model the market.
How large could the store-of-value universe become? What share might Bitcoin capture? Change the assumptions and see what the math implies.
Think these assumptions are wrong? Change them.
These percentages are assumptions, not measured adoption forecasts. “Conservative thesis” names the earlier, lower-share preset. It is not a statement that the result is probable or low-risk. In this mode, only Bitcoin and the aggregate remainder are determined; individual asset losses are not.
Capture from individual categories is the input here. Bitcoin’s total share is the output. These illustrative category defaults are not calibrated to Mark’s whole-pie preset.
Nearly $1 quadrillion.
Not a pile of idle cash.
The 2025 incumbent comparison basket is $994.13T. Adding the retained Bitcoin observation once gives a combined starting pie of $995.87T.
These are gross assets and financial claims. A home can appear economically through property, company equity and financing claims. The model is not a consolidated net-wealth census.
Explore all seven markets →| 2025 category | Working value | Evidence status |
|---|---|---|
| Gold | $30.99T | Derived stock valuation |
| Real estate | $408.79T | Source estimate + 2025 bridge |
| Debt securities | $160.70T | Published securities stock |
| Other credit / loans | $70.22T | Covered loan-form claims; partial coverage |
| Listed equities | $152.48T | Adjusted working estimate |
| Broad money | $144.00T | Attributed global estimate + proxy history |
| Art & collectibles | $26.93T | User assumption; unverified all-holder estimate |
Watch the basket change by 2030, 2040 and 2050.
Start on the 2025 tab for the frozen baseline, then move to 2030, 2040 and 2050 to watch the same seven markets re-weight and Bitcoin enter as a slice. Change the monetary path and the adoption preset; the model does the rest.
Bitcoin's slice is your capture assumption, not a forecast. The other slices are model outputs, so their shares drift as the pie grows. Everything here uses the same frozen inputs as the calculator above.
Understand the model.
Then challenge it.
The model in two minutes
Start with the market and separate sourced data from assumptions.
Read the explanation →02 / LEARNThe historical evidence
See the retained anchors, proxy boundaries and growth calculations.
Read the explanation →03 / LEARNHow the pie grows
Follow the actual money-linked engine, not a wall of macro citations.
Read the explanation →04 / LEARNThe venture-capital lens
Explore the disruption thesis without treating an analogy as a forecast.
Read the explanation →05 / LEARNThe adoption assumptions
Understand the presets and what would have to happen.
Read the explanation →06 / LEARNWhat if we are wrong?
Separate market-growth uncertainty from Bitcoin adoption.
Read the explanation →Take the methodology with you.
The guide, chart data and source library use the same frozen inputs as this calculator.