A source is not a guarantee.
See what each one supports.
Every source has a job. Some supply observations, some provide context, and some explain mechanisms. None independently validates the final Bitcoin price.
33 of 33 sources
Frozen credit-corrected v1 model
Used for: Current levels, formula parameters, monetary paths, supply milestones, and all calculated results.
Limitation: Educational gross-inventory model. Source data, reconstructed estimates and user judgments have different evidence status.
Build-time check: Credit source package: 18 supplied tests executed successfully; numerical adapter checked separately.
Open original source →World Economic Outlook, April 2026: Statistical Appendix, Table A1
Used for: Nominal world output at market exchange rates, including 2025, 2026, 2027 and 2031 levels.
Limitation: 2028–2030 are model interpolations; later years are extensions. IMF does not forecast this SOV total.
Build-time check: Live source and PDF Table A1 inspected during this build.
Open original source →Fiscal Monitor, April 2026
Used for: Government debt-to-GDP path used in the retained sector-credit comparison.
Limitation: It is not a direct driver of the final SOV pie once the monetary path is frozen; it does not project world M2.
Build-time check: Retained source from frozen research; not comprehensively re-audited in this build
Open original source →World Economic Outlook: frequently asked questions
Used for: Explains WEO coverage, release conventions and forecast horizons.
Limitation: Forecasts are conditional and revised; preserve release vintages.
Build-time check: Live page opened during this build.
Open original source →Global liquidity indicators
Used for: Foreign-currency credit to non-bank borrowers, including loans and international debt securities.
Limitation: Not a complete measure of world broad money and not an official 2050 liquidity forecast.
Build-time check: Live page opened during this build.
Open original source →The Long-Term Budget Outlook Data: 2026 to 2056
Used for: U.S. long-term fiscal and economic context.
Limitation: Not a global asset or M2 forecast; no direct multiplier in the released calculator.
Build-time check: Live landing page opened; underlying workbook not independently re-audited in this build.
Open original source →Global Debt Monitor
Used for: Broad credit categories and sector context.
Limitation: Not added as another category. No subtraction of unmatched IIF, SIFMA and money totals.
Build-time check: Retained upstream source. Full proprietary report not redistributed.
Open original source →Global Broad Money Supply Reaches $144 Trillion in 2025
Used for: Attributed $144T end-2025 broad-money baseline.
Limitation: Independent compilation, not a harmonized IMF census. Historical growth is scaled from the narrower model proxy.
Build-time check: Retained source from frozen research; not comprehensively re-audited in this build
Open original source →M2 Money Stock (M2SL)
Used for: U.S. component of the historical monetary proxy.
Limitation: December monthly average; not the whole global money supply.
Build-time check: Retained frozen observations; live observations not substituted.
Open original source →2025 Statistical Communiqué
Used for: China M2 endpoint and RMB loan cross-check.
Limitation: Different monetary and credit aggregates are not independently additive.
Build-time check: Retained source from frozen research; not comprehensively re-audited in this build
Open original source →Monetary developments in the euro area, December 2025
Used for: Euro-area M3 endpoint and methodology.
Limitation: M3 is broader than cash and deposits; national definitions and changing membership remain caveats.
Build-time check: Retained source from frozen research; not comprehensively re-audited in this build
Open original source →Foreign exchange rates, annual G.5A releases
Used for: Currency conversion convention in the frozen money proxy.
Limitation: Annual-average FX is not an exact last-day market mark.
Build-time check: Retained source from frozen research; not comprehensively re-audited in this build
Open original source →How much is global real estate worth?
Used for: End-2024 all-property value of $393.3T; reported 2019–2024 growth.
Limitation: The $408.79T 2025 model value is an explicit bridge, not a reported 2025 census.
Build-time check: Live article inspected during this build.
Open original source →The total value of global real estate
Used for: Retained 2020 all-property estimate.
Limitation: Publisher coverage and valuation vintages differ across the history.
Build-time check: Retained source from frozen research; not comprehensively re-audited in this build
Open original source →Capital Markets Fact Book, 2026 edition
Used for: Outstanding debt securities and global listed-equity capitalization.
Limitation: Debt coverage changes in 2018; stock capitalization is not shareholder total return. Equity working baseline contains a disclosed adjustment.
Build-time check: Retained publisher tables; not re-extracted in this educational build.
Open original source →NSE 2025 market summary
Used for: Retained NSE-only proxy replacing the disputed India component.
Limitation: Working adjustment omits BSE-only companies and is not an official global-source correction.
Build-time check: Retained source from frozen research; not comprehensively re-audited in this build
Open original source →Gold Market Primer: Market size and structure
Used for: Retained whole-stock gold valuation and monetary versus other uses.
Limitation: Live page may be revised. The model preserves its frozen quantity/valuation; not all physical gold is investment bullion.
Build-time check: Live page opened; frozen stock quantity not independently re-extracted from the current page.
Open original source →Gold market commentary: December 2025
Used for: Retained matching end-2025 price reference.
Limitation: Price times estimated physical quantity; no extra quantity uplift in future share allocation.
Build-time check: Retained source from frozen research; not comprehensively re-audited in this build
Open original source →Art and finance: global forum discussion
Used for: A source estimate for ultra-high-net-worth art and collectibles holdings.
Limitation: Not the source of the model’s $24T all-holder assumption. That figure is Mark’s unverified 2023 scenario input.
Build-time check: Retained source from frozen research; not comprehensively re-audited in this build
Open original source →2025 financial statistics report
Used for: China RMB, FX, entrusted and trust loan-form stocks.
Limitation: No ABS or full AFRE total is added again; incomplete global loan coverage.
Build-time check: Retained source from frozen research; not comprehensively re-audited in this build
Open original source →Euro reference exchange rates, December 31, 2025
Used for: USD 1.1750 and CNY 8.2262 per EUR in the frozen credit calculation.
Limitation: Reference rates affect the new loan conversion only, not the earlier money FX convention.
Build-time check: Retained source from frozen research; not comprehensively re-audited in this build
Open original source →H.8 Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks
Used for: Table 3, row 9, December 31: $13,433.4B loans and leases.
Limitation: Commercial-bank coverage only. This is not all U.S. or global lending.
Build-time check: Live PDF Table 3 inspected during this build.
Open original source →December 2025 monetary developments annex
Used for: Retained €13,630B unadjusted private-sector loan stock.
Limitation: Loan-transfer adjustments are not added. Linked non-derecognized securitizations remain a scope limitation.
Build-time check: Text endpoint opened; screenshot retrieval failed. Retained source input used, not newly certified.
Open original source →What is securitisation?
Used for: Distinguishes derecognized and non-derecognized loan transfers.
Limitation: The added loan bucket is not claimed to exclude every securitized underlying exposure.
Build-time check: Retained source from frozen research; not comprehensively re-audited in this build
Open original source →Private-credit statistics documentation
Used for: Clarifies why generic bank credit is not a loan-only stock.
Limitation: Do not add a broad bank-credit total beside its securities components.
Build-time check: Retained source from frozen research; not comprehensively re-audited in this build
Open original source →Historical snapshot: December 31, 2025
Used for: Retained price, publisher circulating supply, and capitalization.
Limitation: 00:00 UTC is the beginning of December 31. Not a perfectly synchronized world year-end census.
Build-time check: Retained source from frozen research; not comprehensively re-audited in this build
Open original source →v29.0 chain parameters
Used for: Subsidy-halving interval used by the retained idealized supply calculation.
Limitation: Model advances an equivalent issuance coordinate at 600 seconds per block; not a live chain-height prediction.
Build-time check: Retained source from frozen research; not comprehensively re-audited in this build
Open original source →v29.0 subsidy implementation
Used for: Integer-satoshi subsidy implementation.
Limitation: No lost-coin or liquid-float haircut is applied.
Build-time check: Retained source from frozen research; not comprehensively re-audited in this build
Open original source →Frequently asked questions
Used for: Peer-to-peer transfer, self-custody, verification and issuance mechanics; volatility and operational risks.
Limitation: Technology properties do not identify a future market-share percentage.
Build-time check: Live page opened during this build.
Open original source →How to Miss By a Mile: An Alternative Look at Uber’s Potential Market Size
Used for: Why a product improvement can change addressable demand and why assumed share ceilings need a rationale.
Limitation: An investor argument, not Bitcoin evidence or a transferable adoption coefficient.
Build-time check: Original author page opened during this build.
Open original source →Mastering product-market fit: a playbook for AI founders
Used for: Adoption, retention and usage expansion as separate product questions.
Limitation: Used to explain the deferred v2.0 approach, not as a numerical Bitcoin input.
Build-time check: Original investor page opened during this build.
Open original source →The Agents Are Here and They Want to Transact
Used for: Bitcoin/Lightning agent tools and transaction infrastructure.
Limitation: Technical availability does not establish sustained Bitcoin savings balances.
Build-time check: Original developer page opened during this build.
Open original source →Accept agentic payments with x402
Used for: A documented stablecoin-based agent-payment route.
Limitation: Payment volume is not Bitcoin capitalization or retained savings demand.
Build-time check: Official documentation opened during this build.
Open original source →