1. The measurement perimeter
All model stock values are in nominal USD trillions; one trillion is 1012 dollars and one quadrillion is 1,000 trillion. The model retains gross real assets and financial claims, with incomplete consolidation and heterogeneous valuation conventions. This is not an investable portfolio or a market-cap-weighted security index.
The reference baseline is 2025, assembled using releases available in the research cutoffs. Some 2025 values are bridges from 2024, and the art reference begins as an unverified 2023 input. Retrieval dates are separate from observation dates. A 2026 publication can report a 2025 observation without converting a 2026 observation into 2025 data.
Version 1 freezes these estimates. A source website changing after release does not automatically alter the app.
[MODEL]2. Market-path equations
Let t be the target year, τ = t − 2025, Mt the modeled broad-money stock, and Vi,0 each non-money category’s starting value. The non-money starting pool N0 includes the new covered loan category.
Nt = Mt × Rt
It = Mt + Nt
The frozen ratio drift dR is 0.005784085289. Money is generated upstream from the retained IMF nominal-GDP path and the historical money/GDP drift. Reference and the two monetary controls are exported exactly, not recreated from rounded headline totals.
Weighti,t = raw weighti,t / sum of all raw non-money weights
Vi,t = Nt × weighti,t
Property’s selected relative log drift is -0.005963207; equity’s is 0.010576055; the other non-money drifts are zero. A category’s selected drift is not its final percentage change in share after normalization. The normalizing denominator changes too.
[MODEL][IMF-GDP]3. The added loan calculation
The six selected loan-form inputs are converted and summed. The China rows use 268.4 + 1.05 + 11.35 + 4.67 trillion CNY, multiplied by 1.1750 / 8.2262 USD per CNY. U.S. loans and leases use 13,433.4 billion USD / 1,000. The euro-area input uses 13,630 billion EUR × 1.1750 / 1,000.
This amount increases N0, not the selected historical drift. Its initial raw relative weight is based on the added stock and its selected drift is zero. Future values of other categories can change slightly through normalization even though their historical starting values and drift assumptions remain unchanged.
No compatible long historical aggregate for this precise loan perimeter was established. The future treatment is therefore a neutral relative-weight convention, not an empirically measured loan-growth forecast.
[C01][C03][C04][C05][C06][MODEL]4. Bitcoin enters the combined starting pie once
The retained Bitcoin observation is 2025-12-31T00:00:00.000Z: price $87,509, publisher circulating supply 19,969,815 BTC and capitalization $1.75T. Its timestamp is the start of December 31, not an exact common close for all incumbent markets.
Combined pie Pt = k × It
The bridge preserves the existing Bitcoin stock once without an independent growth bonus. Its common initial bookkeeping fraction is B0 / (I0 + B0), approximately 0.1755%.
This proportional bookkeeping is not an observed history of which asset holders sold to buy Bitcoin. It must not be presented as such.
[BTC-REF][MODEL]5. Capture and residual accounting
Aggregate residual = Pt × (1 − ht)
Price = Bt × 1012 / supplyt
h is the whole-pie fraction, not the percentage number typed in the control. The app converts 15% to 0.15. Category residuals are unspecified in Simple mode.
Residuali,t = k × Vi,t × (1 − ci,t)
The money category participates in the category sum. Total Bitcoin plus all residuals equals the combined pie. Capture fractions replace the initial fraction rather than being added to it, so existing Bitcoin is not counted again.
Market capitalization is a price-times-units valuation. It is not a calculation of net dollars that must enter the asset. The one-for-one residual rule is this model’s scenario convention, not a universal claim about market-price dynamics.
[MODEL]6. Supply, timing and rounding
| Milestone | Retained projected supply |
|---|---|
| 2030 | 20,567,858 BTC |
| 2040 | 20,925,676 BTC |
| 2050 | 20,986,589 BTC |
The retained implementation uses an idealized 600-second block interval and the halving schedule, calibrated to a publisher circulating-supply observation. It advances an equivalent issuance coordinate, not an independently retrieved future chain height. Unclaimed rewards, actual block timing and supply-provider definitions can differ.
No lost-coin haircut, constrained liquid float or scarcity multiplier is added. Headline figures round for readability; the downloadable model retains full working precision. The app uses milestones only and does not draw a supposed daily Bitcoin forecast between them.
[BTC-CORE][BTC-SUBSIDY][BTC-REF][MODEL]7. One calculation source for web, tables and downloads
The release contains a frozen model configuration and one shared JavaScript calculator engine. The browser, preset-result export and build-time report tables use that engine. The displayed monetary categories are not manually copied from earlier rounded examples.
Checks cover reference-output parity, all preset inputs, all monetary paths, category sums, zero/100% capture, invalid numeric input, residual conservation, mode independence, and browser behavior. Separate source metadata identify evidence limits. A passing calculation test cannot certify future economic behavior.
The build metadata records input hashes and the exact release identifier. Earlier research files remain unchanged; restricted publisher material is not embedded in the public site. Source citations link to original publishers, while the release provides its own derived model tables for inspection.
[MODEL]