A different question produces a different model
“Where is Bitcoin’s price going?” skips the question that matters first: what job could Bitcoin do, for whom, and at what scale? Bitcoin Valuation Lab starts with the markets people use to hold wealth. It projects the size of that comparison universe and asks what a chosen Bitcoin share would imply.
This is the market-disruption question used in venture investing, adapted to a monetary asset. We are not assigning Bitcoin a company’s revenue multiple. We are calculating a conditional monetary valuation from a market size, an assumed share and a supply denominator.
Mark’s v1 thesis is deliberately visible: 1.5% of the combined store-of-value universe in 2030, 8% in 2040 and 15% in 2050. You do not have to agree. The calculator lets you change the shares without rewriting the historical evidence.
[MODEL][VC-GURLEY]Two levers. One transparent equation.
Lever one is the size of the market. Historical monetary relationships and a frozen economic path inform the future size of the store-of-value, or SOV, universe. This part contains estimates and explicit long-run extrapolations.
Lever two is adoption. You decide what percentage Bitcoin represents. The current presets are scenario judgments, not probabilities, measured migration rates or forecasts issued by a bank.
The supply convention converts capitalization into a per-coin value. It does not create demand. A constrained supply schedule is compatible with many possible prices, including a much lower price if demand weakens.
[MODEL][BTC-CORE][BTC-SUBSIDY]Four labels that make the model readable
| Label | Meaning | Example |
|---|---|---|
| Sourced | A value or definition reported by an identified publisher. It may still be an estimate. | Savills’ end-2024 property estimate. |
| Derived | A calculation or bridge from stated inputs. | The model’s property roll-forward to 2025. |
| Assumed | A forward judgment, selected relationship or user input. | Bitcoin represents 15% of the pie in 2050. |
| Calculated | The output produced when the inputs are combined. | An implied nominal price per Bitcoin. |
The same labels appear in the basket notes, technical appendix and source library. Passing software tests does not upgrade an assumed input into an observed fact.
[MODEL][PROPERTY]How to use the lab
Start in Simple mode. Choose a monetary path, select a preset, and change one Bitcoin-share assumption. Watch market capitalization and price respond while the market-growth path remains fixed.
Next, keep adoption fixed and change the monetary path. That isolates a different question: how much does the result depend on money continuing to expand relative to economic output?
Use By market only when you want to assign capture separately to gold, property, bonds, loans, equities, money and collectibles. In that mode, the combined Bitcoin share is an output. It does not also obey your Simple-mode preset.
No wallet, brokerage account, live quote, personal balance sheet or subscription is required. This release runs offline and does not send your inputs anywhere.