The frozen 2025 working baseline
The credit-corrected incumbent basket totals $994.13T. Adding the retained Bitcoin starting value once gives a combined comparison of $995.87T. “Nearly one quadrillion dollars” is a rounded description of that modeled baseline, not a new current wealth survey.
| Category | 2025 working value | Evidence treatment |
|---|---|---|
| Gold | $30.99T | Derived stock valuation[GOLD][GOLDPRICE] |
| Real estate | $408.79T | Source estimate + 2025 bridge[PROPERTY] |
| Debt securities | $160.70T | Published securities stock[SECURITIES] |
| Other credit / loans | $70.22T | Covered loan-form claims; partial coverage[C01][C03][C04][C05][C06] |
| Listed equities | $152.48T | Adjusted working estimate[SECURITIES][INDIA] |
| Broad money | $144.00T | Attributed global estimate + proxy history[MONEY][M2US][M2CN][M3EA] |
| Art & collectibles | $26.93T | User assumption; unverified all-holder estimate[ART][MODEL] |
The categories do not all have an independently observed December 31 closing value. Dates and transformations remain visible below. Future category shares describe this chosen gross inventory, not shares of all household net worth.
[MODEL]How the basket changes by 2030, 2040 and 2050
The 2025 tab is the frozen starting point. From there this widget projects the same seven markets forward and adds Bitcoin as a slice, using this page's own frozen model. Switch the milestone, the monetary path and the adoption preset to see the composition move. Bitcoin's slice is the capture assumption, not a forecast; the other slices are model outputs, so their shares drift as the pie grows.
Markets are scaled so the selected Bitcoin capture fits inside the combined pie the calculator reports for that path and year. That keeps the donut internally consistent with the headline number. Read the slices as gross store-of-value claims, not as cash waiting to rotate.
[MODEL]Real estate: compete for the savings role, not the building
Property can provide shelter, rent, productive land and a way to hold wealth. The model includes the broad all-property estimate, rather than pretending there is an observed global split between an investment component and an owner-occupied component.
The frozen source is Savills’ $393.30T end-2024 estimate. The model’s $408.79T 2025 amount is an explicit one-year bridge. Bitcoin capture denotes a hypothetical reallocation of some savings-related value. It does not mean Bitcoin provides housing, rental income or agricultural output.
[PROPERTY][MODEL]Bonds and equities: different economic claims
Debt securities are outstanding negotiable obligations. They include more than sovereign bonds, and their source valuation conventions are not uniformly market-price marks. Listed equities represent ownership claims on companies. The model uses total capitalization, not an index’s dividend-reinvested return.
For equity, v1 retains a documented working adjustment to the India component. This is not an official correction by the publisher. A future data revision should be versioned rather than silently substituted into the calculator.
Bitcoin can be proposed as an alternative for some discretionary savings allocation, but it does not replace a bond’s contractual payment or a company’s productive earnings. The fraction that might switch remains an adoption assumption.
[SECURITIES][INDIA][MODEL]Why the loan category was added
Removing broad credit solved one duplication risk but also omitted identifiable loan-form claims. The targeted correction adds $70.22T from specified China, U.S. and euro-area loan series. It does not calculate a residual by subtracting unrelated money and securities totals from an IIF headline.
The selection uses China’s listed RMB, FX, entrusted and trust loan components; U.S. commercial-bank loans and leases; and the euro-area private-sector loan stock without the loan-transfer adjustment. The inputs, currency conversions and source definitions are available in the credit bridge download.
This is covered loan-form credit, not a complete global non-securitized-loan census. Some loans may remain on a bank’s balance sheet while a linked vehicle issues securities. That economic linkage has not been fully removed. Missing countries and lender classes are unmeasured, not zero.
[C01][C03][C04][C05][C06][C07]Gold, money and collectibles: three different evidence standards
Gold means the retained estimate of all above-ground metal, marked at the corresponding bullion price. It is broader than private investment bullion. The model does not count gold funds on top of the metal they represent.
Money starts with an attributed $144.00T broad global compilation. Historical growth comes from a scaled U.S.-China-euro-area proxy. Broad money is more than physical currency, and the source definitions may include liquid securities or fund claims.
Art and collectibles use Mark’s explicitly unverified $18T art plus $6T other-collectibles estimate for 2023, assumed disjoint and bridged to 2025. The much smaller Deloitte UHNW estimate covers a different owner population; it does not validate the all-holder figure. Jewelry and collectible coins may also overlap bullion value.
[GOLD][GOLDPRICE][MONEY][ART][MODEL]A finite pie is an accounting convention, not a claim that overlap vanished
A property, a loan secured by it, an equity interest in its owner, and a deposit funding a lender can be distinct gross claims linked to the same economic activity. Adding them does not create an equal amount of unique net wealth.
The model reduces obvious literal repetition and makes its chosen categories explicit. It does not claim to have consolidated every financial intermediary or removed every look-through exposure. Its finite-pie rule keeps scenario outputs arithmetically coherent; it does not transform the basket into cash that could all migrate into Bitcoin.
Keep this distinction in any chart caption: modeled gross store-of-value comparison universe, not “all the money in the world.”
[MODEL][C06][IIF]